Clayton J. Botkin

Professional Summary

Clayton brings nearly 30 years of analytical risk management experience in primary and secondary mortgage markets with specialization in mortgage credit and market risk management, statistical development, model validation and program implementation. Proven record developing analytical solutions using best practices, econometric methods, quantitative finance, building teams and solving complex problems.

Summary of Experience

  • Over 15 years as Founder of Montana Analytics – consultative services focused on the application of quantitative finance for enterprise risk management solutions.
  • Twelve years progressive analytical experience with Freddie Mac, GE Capital and Wells Fargo as VP, Credit Risk Management.
  • Mortgage Agencies: Freddie Mac, FHLBanks
  • Finance Companies: GMAC ResCap, GE Capital Mortgage Insurance
  • Banks: Wells Fargo, Countrywide, WaMu

Areas of Specialization

  • Mortgage Credit and Market Risk Analysis, Securitization and Structured Finance
  • Econometric–Statistical Model Development, Implementation and Integration for Decisions
  • Discrete–Time Hazard Logistic Modeling
  • Probabilistic risk exposure modeling, competing-risks, Basel PD, EAD, LGD models
  • Predictive Analytical Solutions for Mortgage Risk
  • Loan Valuation, pricing, risk – return analysis
  • Allowance for Loan Loss (ALLL)
  • Basel II Loss Forecasting
  • Collateral valuation – House Price Economics
  • Loss Mitigation decision modeling and loan workout optimization process
  • Asset Valuation Solutions for Mortgage Finance
  • Cash Flow-Simulation Modeling and Asset Pricing Loan, Bulk, Pool, ABS/MBS Securities
  • Enterprise Risk Management program development and implementation
  • Independent Model Validation for internal and external audit and regulatory requirements
  • Analytical Audit Management, SOX
  • Practitioner Experience with Valuation and Impairment Accounting (FAS 5/114, 157, 167)

Recent Project Profiles

  • Lead analytical consultant providing loss mitigation workout analysis for nationwide bank (2010).
  • Model development consultant with Credit Portfolio Risk unit of nationwide bank (2009/10). Created SAS- based modeling solutions for ALLL and Business loss forecasting platform.
  • Conducted comprehensive model validation on complex vendor model for portfolio valuation, trade-desk pricing, hedging / risk management for FHLBank (2008/2010).
  • Lead analytical consultant providing loss mitigation process improvement and analytical workout modeling via integration of predictive collection campaigns, delinquency models and workout alternatives (2009).
  • Model validation consultant providing performance monitoring and analytical reporting on a large-scale risk model for national vendor (2009).
  • Model development consultant with Home Loan unit of large nationwide thrift (2008). Developed model performance monitoring process and package to provide metrics for model tracking. Developed HELOC and HEL 2nd lien Basel II PD, EAD, LGD models for improved loss reserve management. Co-authored comprehensive CRO study of alternative techniques for modeling ALLL loss reserves.
  • Developed statistically-based discrete-time hazard models for a nationwide bank loan-loss (ALLL) reserve (2007). Created implementation and integration solutions in coordinated effort with staff.
  • Developed and implemented an Enterprise Risk Management Model Validation Program for a large mortgage banking client (2005/6). Established standards for statistical methods and performed numerous analytical reviews of complex modeling platforms including multiple competing-risk models.
  • Developed Risk Management oversight metrics for Trade Desk of a large ABS/MBS Broker-Dealer (2003/04). This included daily value-at-risk (VaR) and exposure analysis to monitor credit and market risk.


  • M.S. Applied Economics, 1989 Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University          
  • B.S. Agricultural Economics, 1987 Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University